ST. LOUIS - National Weather Service (NWS) Hydrologist Mark Fuchs said the "conversation has started" regarding current flood crest predictions reaching 1993 levels. As of now, the numbers are predicted to be less than 1993 - but only by a few feet.
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Fuchs said the Melvin-Price Lock and Dam will see its second-highest flood in history by next Tuesday morning, at 39.3 feet. This will beat 1973's levels of 36.9 feet but is still around two feet less than 1993's record. Alton is not alone in this struggle, either. Fuchs said towns north of the Riverbend are around a foot below 1993 at most.
In Grafton, the predicted crest for next Tuesday, June 4, will be 36.3 feet - only 1.9 feet below 1993. Hardin will see a level of 40.4 feet Monday night into Tuesday. That number is almost sure to breach the struggling Nutwood Levee. When it breaches, Highway 16 will become inaccessible.
Fortunately, following Wednesday night's severe storms, there will be a dry period until early next week. Fuchs said a system moving into the area may bring as much as an inch to Northeastern Missouri and Central Illinois, and as much as three-quarters of an inch to the Riverbend, according to the current model. Fuchs said the reason for this flooding is the amount of rain across the region this spring following a higher-than-normal snowfall across the upper Mississippi Valley and Central Plains late into the winter.
That snowmelt caused historic flooding in the Missouri River in March and set the base of the Mississippi River high. With the wet spring following it, it had the potential for natural disasters. When asked if the rain next week may affect the crest numbers,
Fuchs said it certainly wouldn't help the numbers fall, but said that system alone couldn't bring it to '93 levels under current models. When asked if levels could reach 93 numbers soon, Fuchs said that conversation has already started with the NWS, and whether they do or not, this flood is certainly historic. As many as half of this area's historic crests have happened in the last 11 years. Fuchs said this was likely due to climate change, but could not comment as to what is causing the climate to change.
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