Build an Ark: Historic Flooding Returning to the Riverbend

ST. LOUIS – People across the Riverbend are preparing for historic flooding, the National Weather Service (NWS) in St. Louis says they have every right to worry.

Top five crests are coming across many communities in the region, including Alton, Grafton, Hardin and St. Louis. NWS Hydrologist Mark Fuchs said the crests expected by early next week will rival many historic flooding events – only being usurped by the massive deluges of 1973, 1993 and 1844 (when measuring was not as exact as it is now). This is a result of more rainfall than predicted across the Mississippi and Illinois River Valleys over the last few days. An updated forecast posted Wednesday by the NWS showed a significant increase in crests throughout the area.

So how high will these crests be? As of now, based on a 24-hour precipitation prediction model, even higher than previously predicted. Alton is predicted to reach 35.5 feet, which would put it around fifth place, historically, with the 2016-17 flood levels being fourth. Grafton is looking at numbers around 32.1 feet, which would tie for third with that 1844 flood. Hardin is also looking at its third highest flooding at a predicted 37.5 feet and St. Louis will see 42.5 feet, which would be its fourth highest flood historically speaking.

While these numbers are high, Fuchs said they are significantly lower than 1993 levels. That flooding event saw numbers as high as seven feet greater than what is predicted to come by early next week.

There is good news to be found from this daunting peril, however, as river levels on the Missouri level are low and are continuing to fall. This prevents further backlogs of water. Also, Fuchs said the waters are expected to recede before more rains are predicted to fall across Northern Illinois and Iowa early next week.

When asked what is causing the increase of historic floods, Fuchs said it was an increase in rain across the river valleys. He said levees do force more water in a smaller space to protect farmland, but overall blames the flooding on climate change. He did not comment as to what is causing said change, but said he used the flows of the rivers to illustrate the problem is caused by an abundance of rain.

Another issue causing the increased significance of floods is late winter snowfall in the far northern reaches of the Mississippi River Valley. Fuchs said the NWS “sounded the alarm” for increased flooding activity in February and March, saying this is the outcome they had predicted when looking at snowfall numbers – adding “all that water had to go somewhere.”

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