ST. LOUIS – Floodwaters in the most affected areas will begin lowering after Monday, but the area is not “out of the water” just yet.
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National Weather Service (NWS) Hydrologist Mark Fuchs said crests were expected to come in most places in the area by Monday evening or by Tuesday morning. He added, however, these numbers are based on 24 hours or forecast precipitation. Given those numbers, water levels should start dropping rather quickly following the crest. Looking forward at precipitation predicted to come throughout this week, however, those levels may return by the weekend after a brief reprieve.
As it stands, the Mississippi River at Alton's Melvin Price Lock and Dam is at 34.72 feet with a predicted crest of 34.8 feet late Monday evening. Fuchs said that number should begin dropping soon after that crest. Grafton is predicted to crest at 32.1 feet – a few inches higher than previous models – and Hardin is expected to reach approximately 38 feet within the next 24 hours.
Fuchs said the rains predicted for this week may place crests by the weekend around the same levels as they currently are. He said the potential for flood stages at the same level as well as slightly higher and slightly lower than current levels are possible within the next eight to 10 days.
With Monday night's predicted crest, this flood in Alton will rank at seventh in Alton's top 10 historic floods, between the 34.38 crest on June 4, 2013, and the 34.86 crest on May 6, 2017. Crests earlier this year in Alton did not reach historic levels, but did reach 31.97 feet on April 3, 2019. This crest would make four of the 10 highest crests in Alton's history in the last 10 years.
Hardin's levels will be the third highest crest in its history at current levels. If it increases by a mere two tenths of a foot, it will be second only to the Great Flood of 1993. Currently, it will be slightly lower than the 1973 level of 38.2 feet. This would make half of the worst 10 floods in recorded history in the last decade, it would be six if that decade had a plus one, as the eighth (soon to be ninth) highest crest in recorded history at Hardin was 35.82 feet in 2008.
This trend continues when glancing at Grafton's water levels. Grafton's predicted crest would be right at its third highest crest, recorded on June 18, 1844, which was 32.13 feet. Only that one, 1973 and 1993 were higher than current cresting predictions. This would make at least three historic crests of 10 in the last decade. It is knocking a 2017 crest of 29.58 feet off the list, and Grafton also saw a crest of 30.80 feet in 2008.
In previous interviews with Riverbender.com, Fuchs said the increase in flooding across the region is due to more precipitation. He attributed it to climate change, but did not comment as to what was causing the climate to change.
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