ST. LOUIS - According to the next 24 hours of forecast precipitation, predicted crests in the area are at the same levels they were late last week - but that could change.
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Currently, Alton's forecast crest is 39.2 feet, Grafton's is 36 and Hardin is at 40.5. The last of those will likely overtop the Nutwood Levee, which is in the forecast model already, National Weather Service (NWS) Hydrologist Mark Fuchs said. Levee overtops, especially north of St. Louis, add a new variable to many flood forecast equations.
Another variable is this week's predicted precipitation. As of now, Fuchs said as much as three inches could fall in Northeastern Missouri over the course of this week. He said forecast models are inherently inaccurate and the forecast will be updated when it becomes more clear when and where the rain will fall. If that three inches does come, and it comes over the span of days, it could cause the waters to rise a bit, or it could delay the crests and water receding. If it all falls at the same time, that could be disastrous.
The Riverbend is not the only area affected by this flooding predicament. Fuchs said an additional three inches is predicted for Southeastern Missouri this week as well, which could cause more trouble for the already swollen Arkansas River. As much as five inches could fall across Kentucky this week, meaning the Ohio River may soon see high water levels as well.
"There is a lot of water in this part of the country right now," Fuchs said. As for crests getting higher, Fuchs said it was entirely possible these coming numbers could be the highest the area has this season but added with caution: those numbers aren't written in stone.
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