Flood Predictions Historic, But Not Yet Biblical, in the Riverbend

ST. LOUIS - The crests predicted by next week in the Riverbend will be higher than any historic level in the area short of 1993. Meteorologists at the National Weather Service (NWS) have been utilizing the next 48 hours of predicted rainfall instead of only 24 hours as was previously used.

The reason is because they have described themselves as much more confident in the precipitation numbers in the next 48 hours, and it will enhance the flood outlook.

Previously, since much of the precipitation came from unpredictable spring thunderstorms, 24 hours was enough to notice to maintain accuracy. The new method made many of the crest numbers in the area even more daunting.

Alton, which sees the river encroaching steadily to its historic downtown, will see a crest of 37 feet next Sunday around noon - by current predictions. This will usurp the Great Flood of '73, but not reach '93 yet. It will be the second-highest flood in the area's history. The flood has already affected area businesses.

Grafton, whose economy has been hit hard by the current weather conditions, will also see its second-highest crest next Monday by current predictions. It is set for 33.5 feet. Many businesses prepared to move back into the area had to rethink their decisions with this current forecast looming.

The whole town of Hardin in Calhoun County has been eyeing the Nutwood Levee since this year's flooding started. The levee was designed to handle more than 38 feet, and with help from local sandbaggers, including both student volunteers and prisoners, the levee may be able to hold 39 feet.

It will be put to the test, as it will see a crest of 38.5 feet next Monday, according to current predictions. Meteorologists at the NWS have seen a lot of levees breaking or breaching with this flood. One recently was compromised near Columbia, Missouri. When asked if more rain was coming after the projected 48 hours, a reporter was told by an NWS meteorologist more rain was predicted for Thursday, but it was for this area and south of here. That would raise water levels a bit, bit that water would evacuate quickly.

These crests are the second top 10 historic flood levels in 2019. Meteorologists said when this event is looked upon historically, however, the current crests and/or future crests from this year's event may be summed into the top 10 instead of the crests earlier this season.

In previous interviews with Riverbender.com, NWS Hydrologist Mark Fuchs said, when the water levels were beginning to recede, the Great Flood of 93 had high spring crests, which lowered before early summer thunderstorms increased river levels later.

He warned the area to be aware of that as the waters began to recede.

When he was asked what caused these historic floods, he said a combination of things but added the amount of rain falling had increased. He said climate change was adding to it, but would not say what was causing that climate change.

Chris Rhodes also contributed to this story.

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